Prabowo’s Shift Toward China Is Worrying for Indonesia

Prabowo Subianto, the Indonesian Minister of Defense and former presidential candidate, has been seen as increasingly shifting toward China in terms of his foreign policy stance. This shift raises concerns among various sectors of Indonesian society, as well as from its regional neighbors, due to China’s growing influence in the region, especially in the South China Sea, where China has been expanding its territorial claims.

 

Several key factors contribute to this worry:

 

1. **Geopolitical Balance**: Indonesia traditionally maintains a balanced foreign policy, positioning itself as a key member of ASEAN and striving to remain neutral in superpower rivalries. A tilt toward China could upset this balance and potentially alienate Indonesia’s relationship with Western powers, including the United States.

 

2. **Economic Dependence**: While China is an important economic partner for Indonesia, there is concern over becoming too economically dependent on China, especially in areas like infrastructure development, trade, and investment. This could lead to a lack of strategic autonomy for Indonesia, limiting its ability to make independent decisions on critical regional issues.

 

3. **South China Sea Disputes**: Indonesia has been involved in disputes over maritime boundaries with China in the South China Sea. A closer relationship with China could potentially compromise Indonesia’s stance in these territorial disputes, especially as China asserts its claims over vast portions of the sea, which includes areas that are vital for Indonesia’s own economic and security interests.

 

4. **Domestic Political Concerns**: Prabowo’s tilt toward China has also sparked fears of domestic political shifts that might align Indonesia more closely with authoritarian regimes, undermining democratic values. Prabowo’s own controversial past and authoritarian tendencies have raised questions about how his foreign policy might reflect an erosion of democratic principles at home.

 

5. **Regional Stability**: A closer alliance with China could destabilize ASEAN unity, as many countries in the region, such as Vietnam and the Philippines, are wary of China’s assertiveness in regional disputes. Indonesia’s position as a leader in ASEAN could be weakened if it becomes more aligned with China’s geopolitical agenda.

 

In summary, while China’s economic power and political influence are undeniable, Indonesia’s shift toward China under Prabowo’s leadership carries significant risks for the country’s geopolitical position, regional relationships, and domestic political environment. It’s crucial for Indonesia to maintain its strategic autonomy and continue its role as a stabilizing force in Southeast Asia.